Gushiken Yona
The era of timing massive capital inflows into Bitcoin is over. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argued Thursday that liquidity channels are now too diverse for traditional timing models to work. The market has entered a period of structural boredom rather than imminent collapse.
Key Points
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts a period of "boring sideways" price action, dismissing fears of a 50% crash.
- Glassnode data identifies $99,100 as the critical cost-basis resistance needed to confirm a return to a bull regime.
- Analysts credit mature institutional holders like MicroStrategy for breaking historical volatility cycles.
“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ki wrote on X. “Money just rotated to stocks and shiny rocks. I don’t think we’ll see a 50 percent crash from all-time highs like past bear markets. Just boring sideways for the next few months.”
The CEO credited the maturation of the holder base for breaking historical volatility cycles. Institutions holding for the long term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle. Ki noted that MicroStrategy won’t dump any significant chunk of its 673,000 BTC. He warned traders that shorting in anticipation of a “nuke” is a low-probability bet.
Glassnode Data Confirms Bitcoin Structural Reset
New data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode supports the thesis of a stabilized environment. Bitcoin broke out from a prolonged compression zone around $87,000 in the first week of 2026. It rallied 8.5% to $94,400.
Glassnode noted a marked cooling in profit-taking pressure in its “Week On-Chain” report. Realized profit dropped to $183.8 million per day in late December. This is a sharp decline from the $1 billion daily average seen in late 2025. Exhausted sell-side pressure allowed the market to regain its footing.
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Significant resistance remains despite the stabilization. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of overhead supply held by investors with a cost basis between $92,100 and $117,400. These top buyers create natural friction as prices rise because they seek to exit at breakeven.
The $99k Battleground
The report identifies the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100 as the critical line in the sand. Reclaiming the $99,100 level is necessary to confirm a transition back to a bull market regime.
Currently, the Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio sits at 0.95. This means recent entrants hold an average unrealized loss of 5%.
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Spot flows remain quiet. The derivatives market signals a return of risk appetite. The end-of-year options expiry cleared 45% of open interest and removed structural hedging constraints.
Dealer gamma’s flipped short between $95,000 and $104,000. Dealers must buy into rising prices to hedge in this environment, which potentially reinforces upside moves.
U.S. spot ETF flows turned higher following late-2025 outflows. The move suggests institutional capital’s slowly returning to an accumulation stance.
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YONA GUSHIKEN
Yona brings a decade of experience covering gaming, tech, and blockchain news. As one of the few women in crypto journalism, her mission is to demystify complex technical subjects for a wider audience. Her work blends professional insight with engaging narratives, aiming to educate and entertain.
