Gushiken Yona
While the political world grapples with the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. election, one trader is swimming in a sea of profits. A French trader has just pocketed a staggering $79 million by wagering on Donald Trump’s victory on the decentralized betting platform, Polymarket.
The story of this daring bet, which defied the odds and generated a windfall for the anonymous French trader, known only as Theo4, began with whispers in the crypto community. Rumors circulated about a “whale,” a trader with significant financial resources, holding substantial positions on Polymarket, betting heavily on a Trump win. As the election neared, those whispers turned to scrutiny, as the trader’s large-scale bets raised eyebrows.
Blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis, using their Reactor tool, delved into the transactions, uncovering a network of nine accounts likely controlled by the French trader Theo4. The firm identified the accounts through their funding patterns, transaction timing, and cash-outs to specific exchange deposit addresses, revealing a coordinated effort that ultimately led to a staggering profit of nearly $78.7 million.
“It’s been widely reported that one whale, allegedly a French man named Theo, controlled four Polymarket accounts and had significant positions betting on a Trump win,” Chainalysis revealed in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “We estimate he profited ~$78.7M. … Based on Polymarket’s calculations, these addresses appear to have earned a net profit of nearly $78M betting primarily on a Trump victory.”
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Platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt emerged as a fascinating new dimension to the election cycle, allowing users to wager on various outcomes and creating a dynamic, real-time forecast driven by the collective wisdom of the crowd. Unlike traditional polls, which rely on sampling and can be susceptible to bias, prediction markets incentivize accuracy by rewarding those who correctly forecast events.
This financial incentive creates a powerful mechanism for aggregating information and filtering out noise. DeFi creator and analyst Jake Pahor recognized this, stating, “Polymarket was the main source of truth for me and most of my mates ahead of the election… This is the future.”
Polymarket itself emphasized the “power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets” in their post-election statement, highlighting its consistent and accurate forecasting. It expressed pride in delivering “high quality, transparent data… ahead of everyone else,” and envisioned a future where its platform “demystifies the events that matter most.”
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While Theo4’s identity remains somewhat obscured, his success serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the crypto market and the potential for outsized returns from those who are willing to take calculated risks. However, it also raises questions about the potential for manipulation and the role of transparency in a decentralized world where individual actors can exert significant influence.
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YONA GUSHIKEN
Yona brings a decade of experience covering gaming, tech, and blockchain news. As one of the few women in crypto journalism, her mission is to demystify complex technical subjects for a wider audience. Her work blends professional insight with engaging narratives, aiming to educate and entertain.
