Trump’s ‘Tariff Playbook’ Hits Crypto Hard

January 23, 2026
Trump's 'Tariff Playbook' Hits Crypto Hard
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President Trump utilized weekend illiquidity in digital markets to issue new tariff threats against eight European nations on Saturday. The timing coincided with the one-year anniversary of the administration’s inauguration. 

Key Points

  • President Trump announced tariffs on eight European nations on Saturday, leveraging weekend illiquidity to pressure global trade negotiations.
  • The move follows a year where Bitcoin fell 13% and Shiba Inu declined 65% despite a pro-crypto executive narrative.
  • Analysts say the 11-step "Tariff Cycle" creates systematic volatility that tests the bond market’s 4.60% yield ceiling.

Analysts describe the current volatility as the middle phase of a scripted “Tariff Playbook.” The White House is currently using these threats to force negotiations related to the acquisition of Greenland. Market records show aggressive trade policies weighed heavily on crypto valuations during the first 12 months of the administration.

Market commentator Ash Crypto released a comprehensive look at asset performance since the President took office in January 2025. Performance records challenge the narrative that a pro-crypto executive branch ensures higher prices. Bitcoin (BTC) declined 13%, while Ethereum (ETH) shed 5.8%. More aggressive assets faced harsher corrections. Solana (SOL) dropped 50%, XRP fell 40%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) and Avalanche (AVAX) both plummeted 68%.

The list of double-digit losses extends across the entire sector. Uniswap (UNI) fell 65%, while PEPE dropped 72%. Niche assets and themed tokens recorded even more severe drawdowns. The $TRUMP token plunged 82%. $APT fell 83%, and $INJ declined 80%. The most extreme loss occurred in $MELANIA, which shed 98.8% of its value since the inauguration.

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Meme Coins in the Crossfire

Volatility within the tariff playbook has hit meme coins like Shiba Inu (SHIB) the hardest. The asset declined 65% since the inauguration amid persistent risk-off flows. SHIB functions as a high-beta asset, sensitive to shifts in global sentiment. Recent price action mirrors the psychological impact of weekend threats. On-chain data confirms trading volumes spiked 150% during the Greenland escalation.

The Shiba Inu community maintains a defensive moat despite the price pressure. Token burns surged in January 2026, removing more than 5 billion units from circulation. Holder counts remain stable, with over 1.3 million active addresses. This internal resilience positions the token for potential relief rallies if negotiations conclude with a dovish tone. Traders are watching the $0.000007 level as a technical floor. A potential Greenland deal could catalyze a move toward the $0.00001 resistance zone during a broader market recovery.

The Eight Stages of the Tariff Cycle

The administration appears to follow a repeatable cycle to exert pressure on global partners. Ash Crypto identified eight distinct stages in the process. The White House begins with aggressive tariff announcements, typically delivered on weekends when traditional exchanges are closed. If demands go unmet, calls for harsher penalties follow. Behind-the-scenes negotiations then begin as digital markets enter a period of freefall.

The playbook suggests insiders receive information first, allowing preparation for an accumulation window. Once a trade deal is finalized, the President announces the breakthrough on social media with a signature sign-off. Markets typically rally to new highs following the announcement. Ash Crypto suggests the current Greenland negotiation cycle occupies the fourth or fifth stage. Market suffering and quiet maneuvering define the present window.

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Tariff: The Weekend Weapon and Strategic Leverage

The timing of threats against Denmark and the United Kingdom relies on psychological pressure. Issuing directives on a Saturday ahead of a federal holiday forces cryptocurrency markets to price risk first. Digital assets serve as a real-time sentiment gauge. President Trump consistently leads with punishing, threatening messages. Negotiating tactics center on creating an immediate sense of crisis to extract concessions. Investors often struggle to distinguish between opening bids and genuine policy shifts.

Macro Signals and the Search for a Floor

A relief rally often follows once a trade deal is finalized. Current volatility serves as a prelude to an accumulation phase for those tracking the playbook. Investors expect a formal announcement on the Greenland negotiations to eventually end the current period of market stress. Professional desks are watching for signals that the “suffering” phase has reached a bottom.

The market remains vulnerable until the deal stage arrives. The administration appears committed to using digital markets to price geopolitical ambitions. Traders operate in an environment where social media posts can erase weeks of gains in minutes. The Treasury market remains the final arbiter. Elevated yields continue to pressure risk assets, regardless of the political backdrop. Attention now turns to whether the tariff strategy delivers economic results before the next legislative cycle begins.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Tariff Playbook is an 11-step negotiation strategy involving weekend threats and strategic social media posts to force trade concessions. It is used by the Trump administration to leverage market illiquidity and psychological pressure against foreign nations. This strategy matters because it creates predictable but punishing volatility cycles for digital asset valuations.
Lower prices result from aggressive trade policies and tariff threats that drive institutional capital into "risk-off" assets like the U.S. dollar. Data from Ash Crypto shows Bitcoin is down 13% and SHIB is down 65% since the January 2025 inauguration. This development matters because it suggests that broader macroeconomic trade wars currently outweigh executive-level crypto rhetoric.
The cycle usually resolves by mid-week when targeted nations offer concessions and the President announces a trade deal before tariffs actually take effect. Relief rallies typically follow these announcements, often pushing markets to new highs as the initial weekend panic subsides. The timing matters because investors must distinguish between negotiation tactics and live economic policy.
Shiba Inu has functioned as a high-beta instrument sensitive to global sentiment, resulting in significant drawdowns but stable holder counts of 1.3 million addresses. The community has responded with internal resilience, removing over 5 billion units through token burns in January 2026. This tension matters because it establishes a technical floor for SHIB as it awaits a trade-deal-driven relief rally.
Investors should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield, specifically watching for a climb above the critical 4.60% threshold. The administration watches the bond market closely and may normalize its rhetoric if rising yields threaten midterm election year stability. This indicator matters because it serves as the mathematical boundary for the President’s "scripted" negotiation tactics.
YONA GUSHIKEN

YONA GUSHIKEN

Yona brings a decade of experience covering gaming, tech, and blockchain news. As one of the few women in crypto journalism, her mission is to demystify complex technical subjects for a wider audience. Her work blends professional insight with engaging narratives, aiming to educate and entertain.


Yona has no crypto positions and holds no crypto assets. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The Shib Daily is the official publication of the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency project. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.