Uptober Blues: Can Crypto Overcome Market Anxieties and Geopolitical Strife?

Uptober, a term coined within the cryptocurrency community, typically describes a month of bullish activity and upward price movements. This usually takes place as the market prepares for the year-end rally. Historically, enthusiasts have looked forward to renewed investments, an increase in trading volumes, and various crypto-related events. This period typically includes major conferences and community meetups.

However, this year’s Uptober so far doesn’t seem to be taking off as anticipated. Several factors contribute to this stalled momentum, with geopolitical tensions—particularly the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel—remaining a significant concern. Such factors are currently weighing heavily on market enthusiasm.

According to well-known Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, the mid-term market structure remains bearish, but it is actively moving toward neutrality while pursuing bullish momentum. He cautions that achieving a new all-time high (ATH) will take time. He added that short-term analysis suggests a 1 to 3-week pause to allow for a consolidation phase before the next bullish push. Moreover, Woo expressed skepticism about the optimistic prospect of “Uptober.” He predicts a sideways market in October followed by more engagement in November and December. Nevertheless, his long-term perspective remains positive.

Structure mid term is bearish moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. ATH will take time.

Short term structure suggests 1-3 wks stand down to cool off before the next bullish attempt.

I don’t think we get Uptober, sideways Oct, and Nov-Dec for laser eye parties.

Long term…
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 2, 2024

BTC’s October So Far: Uptober or Octobear?

According to Presto Research’s market brief released Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) faced its most difficult beginning to a month since 2013 on Tuesday. At one point, Bitcoin’s value plummeted by 6.5%, dropping from above $64,000 to approximately $60,100. Generally, the larger cryptocurrency landscape reflected this trend, where key assets like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP saw losses of between 8% and 10% at various intervals.

Furthermore, the brief highlighted Tuesday’s BTC price change, down 4%, while gold rose 0.8%, following Iran’s attack on Israel. It may seem confusing, especially after BlackRock’s recent comparison of BTC to gold as a safe asset with no “country-specific risk.” However, the short-term price shifts reflect their different maturity stages. The brief indicates that gold has a 5,000-year history as a stable store of value, leaving little room for growth. In contrast, BTC, with only 15 years of history, shares gold’s value attributes but is still early in its adoption phase. Its narrative allows for significant potential growth yet resembles the risk profile of a startup.

Bitcoin vs. Gold Debate Reignites as Crypto Market Faces Bearish Trends

Jeroen Blokland, founder of Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund and an advocate for scarce assets, pointed out in a post on X that investors are currently selling Bitcoin amid rising geopolitical tensions. This is likely due to increased uncertainty and an anticipation of flight to safety. Consequently, many investors reallocate their assets into gold, traditionally viewed as a stable store of value during turbulent times.

However, not everybody shares this sentiment. Samson Mow, CEO of game development firm Pixelmatic and Bitcoin tech company JAN3, begs to differ. He challenged Blokland’s stance, stating on X that the multi-asset fund CEO’s strategy of selling BTC to acquire paper gold is a misguided attempt to insulate against war. The reason, he said, is because investors may not be able to easily relocate gold if a real conflict occurs.

“Imagine trying to hedge against war by selling #Bitcoin to buy paper gold that you can’t move anywhere in the event of actual war,” he said.

This view somewhat aligns with that of Robbie Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets for BlackRock, essentially describing BTC as an emerging alternative to traditional currencies worldwide. He noted that it is a scarce, decentralized non-sovereign asset. However, he mentioned that it is devoid of risks associated with specific nations and conventional counterparties, which doesn’t necessarily support current trends impacted by the ongoing Iran-Israel dispute.

#Bitcoin is an emerging global monetary alternative; a scarce, global, decentralized, non-sovereign asset. – Robbie Mitchnick, @BlackRock Head of Digital Assets pic.twitter.com/ZOkq2Whzqt
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) September 24, 2024

The Uptober Question: Will Historical Gains Outweigh Present Risks?

Wale.moca, a well-followed Web3 advocate on X, shared a more uplifting view. He noted that the significant price movements commonly associated with this month historically begin later than October 1st. “Don’t cancel Uptober yet. Believe in something,” he said, reminding the community of past patterns that suggest potential gains ahead.

The recent conditions of the cryptocurrency market in what is supposedly an Uptober trend underscore a complex interplay of market uncertainties and geopolitical factors. Global conflicts and economic fluctuations are testing the resilience of digital assets, causing concerns among investors. While historical patterns suggest October could bring positive momentum to cryptocurrency markets, current indicators reveal a cautious sentiment among stakeholders.

The extent to which cryptocurrencies can sustain investor confidence with all these external pressures remains to be seen. For now, investors are advised to approach the market with a balanced perspective. They are urged to recognize both the opportunities and risks inherent in this volatile environment.

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Malaya has positions in SHIB, ETH, USDT, MATIC, etc. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The Shib Magazine and The Shib Daily are the official publications of the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency project. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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