Lawrence Damilola
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has expressed support for war-related betting markets on Polymarket, the decentralized predictions platform.
His comments came after crypto community member “Legendary” raised concerns on X (formerly Twitter) regarding the existence of a Hezbollah betting section. The user argued that such markets trivialize conflict by turning it into a bet, likening it to a “football game to bet on.”
In response, Buterin defended Polymarket, stating, “There are all kinds of people (including elites) on Twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions about conflicts.”
He added that it’s valuable to see if those with “actual skin in the game” believe something has a 2% or 50% chance of happening. Buterin emphasized that these markets are not about “making money from bad stuff happening” but about creating a space where speech has consequences without relying on government or corporate censors.
I support these existing. The point of polymarket is that from the perspective of traders it's a betting site, but from the perspective of viewers it's a news site. There's all kinds of people (incl elites) on twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) October 1, 2024
Polymarket currently hosts markets on geopolitical events, including bets on whether Israel will invade Lebanon or if the U.S. military will take action this year. Buterin noted that while these markets may appear as betting platforms from a trader’s perspective, they act as informational tools for viewers.
Concerns Over Potential Real-World Influence
Chainlink community member Zach Rynes also raised concerns about the potential risks of these prediction markets, asking Buterin whether such could incentivize harmful actions in the real world. Rynes questioned the idea of assassination markets, where individuals might act to influence outcomes and profit from bets.
Buterin opposed such markets, stating, “The dividing line is: is the market acting as a primary incentive for people to do bad things so they can insider-trade on them?” He acknowledged the concern but emphasized that current platforms are not yet large enough to influence events on that scale.
Rynes agreed that the example was extreme but argued that any prediction market related to influenceable events carries risks. In response, Buterin suggested the introduction of size-based soft caps on Polymarket to help prevent undesirable outcomes.
Polymarket’s Future
Polymarket, which raised $45 million in its Series B funding round, is reportedly considering a new capital raise of over $50 million. The platform is also exploring the possibility of launching its own token, which could give users voting rights on governance matters.
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Lawrence does not hold any crypto asset. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The Shib Magazine and The Shib Daily are the official media and publications of the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency project. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
