Polymarket Predicts No Prison Time for Ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison

Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, is scheduled to be sentenced today in New York for her involvement in the collapse of FTX.

Despite pleading guilty to fraud and money laundering charges in December 2022, many on the Polymarket platform are betting that she will avoid prison time. As of Monday, 43% of bettors on the platform predicted no jail time for Ellison.

The bets reflect varying opinions, with 19% of Polymarket users predicting a sentence between 1 and 11 months, and 28% estimating a sentence of 12 to 23 months. Polymarket allows participants to purchase shares in predictions, with each share paying $1 if the forecast proves correct. As of this month, shares betting on Ellison receiving no jail time were trading at 48 cents, indicating a 48% chance that she will be spared incarceration.

Ellison was a key figure in the fraud case involving her former partner and FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. She has cooperated with federal prosecutors as part of her plea deal, which contributed to speculation that she may receive a reduced sentence. Ellison’s testimony in Bankman-Fried’s trial was a pivotal moment in the proceedings, culminating in the former FTX CEO receiving a 25-year prison sentence.

Prosecutors have acknowledged Ellison’s cooperation. A letter from U.S. attorneys, submitted to the court on September 17, highlighted the challenges Ellison faced due to her involvement in the case.

“The government cannot think of another cooperating witness in recent history who has received a greater level of attention and harassment,” the letter stated. It also noted the potential for long-term consequences on Ellison’s professional life.

Polymarket bettors have shown varying degrees of success in predicting sentences in other high-profile crypto cases. While they correctly anticipated that Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao would receive less than six months in prison, they were less accurate in forecasting Bankman-Fried’s 25-year sentence. Only 27% of participants predicted a sentence between 20 and 30 years, while 28% had expected a much harsher punishment of 40 to 50 years.

Ellison’s cooperation is seen as a major factor in her case, and her sentencing will be closely watched given her central role in the downfall of FTX.

Lawrence does not hold any crypto asset. This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The Shib Magazine and The Shib Daily are the official media and publications of the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency project. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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